A quick introduction: as I understand it, Gyanendra's primary motive in assuming absolute power last year was to give him more leverage to fight the Maoists in the Nepali countryside. Wikipedia indicates that the Maoists control 70% of the country's territory. Since Nepal has some very sparsely populated regions, that statistic may not be quite as bad as it sounds (i.e., it accounts for a relatively small percentage of the population), but it's not good. 13,000 people have died in the civil war with the Maoists over the past decade.
In the past three weeks, millions of Nepalis have taken to the streets to agitate for democracy. A Seven Party Alliance (SPA) has been formed, whose primary goal is to remove the king. The protestors have been met with harsh repressive measures, that leading to 15 deaths, and as many as 5000 injured (including quite a number in protests that occurred over the weekend, after the king's announcement). The King's choice to use aggressive policing has probably further weakened any remaining popular support he may have.
I've been trying to explore some Nepali media to get somewhat of an inside look at what's going on there. What do the protestors really want? I gather the democracy parties are collaborating with the Maoists -- do they have a plan for what happens after the king is deposed?
1. The starting point for me here is Global Voices Online, which has a link-filled post here.
2. They link to a blog called Democracy for Nepal, where I read a post suggesting that the leader with the most stature, and who may be a popular choice to take over as President, is Girjia Koirala. (Another name often mentioned is the leader of another party, Madhav Nepal.)
One the same blog, there is a post about the central role of the army in all of this:
Many top brass have sent out feelers to Delhi that if the seven party alliance will play the game, they will ally with the alliance to get rid of the king and fight the Maoists. The army is going to come under the parliament. The parliament may order the army to keep at war, or declare peace. The army does not get to strike any kind of a bargain beforehand. The parliament will command the army. The alliance will give orders to the army. That is how it will happen.
Of course, the author is just speculating here. But it's an important point: protestors get things in motion, but for better or worse it's going to be the army that forces the king to go (and that will dictate how it goes down).
3. United We Blog. This site has some great photographs from the protests, as well as some detailed accounts of what is happening where:
4. Samudaya.org is a news magazine with a number of interesting articles from the past three weeks. Here, an author suggests that the stridency of the current protests may reflect the disproportionate presence of Maoists.
And here is a pretty forceful manifesto, addressed as an open letter to King Gyanendra. (A bit strident for my taste.) And some pictures (warning: some of them are graphic).
5. The Kathmandu Times Here is part of a biting Op-Ed from the Kathmandu Times, in response to the King's statement last Friday:
Currently, Nepal stands at a crossroads. On the right side of it is a new Nepal where people are fully sovereign; insurgency is resolved and the Maoists join the political mainstream; the state is restructured to accommodate the disfranchised populace; and the society makes a peaceful transition towards prosperity. On the wrong side of it is the status quo, where the fundamental issue of sovereignty remains unresolved; the Maoist insurgency continues; state, under the direct control of the king, remains unitary and unwilling to address the issue of widespread exclusion. As Nepal has entered the final stage of the labor pain, the international community, unfortunately, seems to be supportive of the status quo. The international community's euphoric reaction to Friday's royal address is ludicrous, to say the least. It also shows how shallow is their reading of Nepali history and how far removed they are from the present ground reality. The foreign envoys' suggestion to the parties to break with the rebels and to take the royal offer is fraught with two serious problems.
First, it does not address the Maoist insurgency, the main problem of the day. Breaking with the Maoists at this point in time and rejecting their legitimate demand for a constituent assembly means more bloodshed and more chaos for several years to come. Second, it denies the Nepali people their sovereign rights to decide --- through peaceful means --- the future of monarchy. Between three to four million people, who have already hit the streets nationwide, demanding the election to the constituent assembly, didn't suddenly wake up one fine morning and said that they wanted to do away with the monarchy. These people have a painful memory of their history where monarchy has played, time and again, with Nepali people's democratic aspirations. King Tribhuvan failed to live up to his promise of constituent assembly elections in the 1950s. Then, King Mahendra dismissed the first democratically elected government in December 1960. King Birendra gave in to the demands of democracy only after dozens of Nepalis shed blood in 1990. Again in 2004, King Gyanendra sacked the elected government and in 2005 seized absolute power, jailed the political leaders and gagged the press.
6. India's role. Last week, envoys from India went to Nepal to see the king.
India had apparently promised support to Gyanendra if he conceded his absolute power and restored the constitutional monarchy. So after he made the announcement on Friday, within a few minutes the Indian government issued a statement in support of the "twin pillar" policy.
But apparently they didn't anticipate the degree to which popular opinion has solidified against the king. The center was forced to issue a second statement, indicating that they now support whatever form of government the people of Nepal select.
It's a terrible diplomatic miscalculation, but perhaps a predictable one, since Nepal has 'made do' with a monarchy for quite a long time. With terrible poverty and underdevelopment, it seems pretty easy to see why so many Nepalis now want to try something different.
* * * * *
Note: If anyone can suggest further educational links, I would be grateful. I'm still in the learning phase of my reading about what is happening in Nepal.